Key metricsKey metrics
PricePrice$17.60

Gnosis (GNO) Information{coin_name} ({symbol}) Information

Gnosis builds revolutionary market-driven forecasting technology to let you shape the future. Gnosis allows you to create arbitrary events to make predictions on any information like, who becomes the next president of the United States or what will be the stock-price of Apple on date X.

Questions and AnswersQuestions and Answers

What is a prediction market?
Prediction markets are sometimes called information markets, idea futures, event derivatives, decision markets, or virtual stock markets. In essence, a prediction market is a vehicle for aggregating information about the expected outcome of a future event. Participants receive a set of tokens reflecting each possible outcome and may then trade these with either other market participants, or a market maker. The current market price reflects the probability of the specific outcome to occur. The set of outcome tokens has to cover all possible outcomes so that the probability of all outcomes adds up to 100%. Once the event outcome is known, the winning outcome has a probability of 100% and therefore is worth 1 while all other losing outcomes have the probability of 0% and therefore are worth 0.
What makes prediction markets such a powerful tool?
Prediction markets have a great mechanism to incentivize participation and aggregate relevant information. Due to financial incentives, it pays off for participants with superior knowledge and beliefs to participate. New information will be incorporated quickly into an open market. The markets are impossible to manipulate unless the manipulator has more money than every other knowledgeable person combined, an unlikely scenario for most markets with a reasonable number of participants.
What are some of the use cases of prediction markets?
The range of use cases for prediction markets is huge. Ranging from information gathering (e.g. predicting climate change, gauging the price of a piece of art before the auction, or predicting epidemics), incentivizing a certain behavior, making governance decisions (futarchy, governing a DAO), to use cases for insurance and hedging instruments (e.g. flight insurance), we see numerous possibilities to apply this forecasting technology and believe that it will revolutionize current pricing mechanisms.
What is the difference between categorical events and scalar events?
Events can either resolve to an outcome out of a defined list of outcomes (categorical events) or to a number within a defined range (scalar events). An example for a categorical event would be “Where will Amazon locate its next headquarters?” Outcomes: A) Phoenix, B) Chicago, or C) Austin. An example for a scalar event would be “What will Apple's stock price be at the end of Q4 2018?” The outcome is a scalar value, in this case a price in USD. Scalar events are represented with two outcome tokens. One outcome token for long positions [“the price will rise”], and one for short positions [“the price will fall”].
What is a collateral token?
The collateral token can be any ERC-20 token and defines the currency in which the event is traded. The collateral token used is defined by the market creator. It is always possible to redeem a full set of outcome tokens for one collateral token because all outcomes together always add up to a probability of 100%.
What are outcome tokens?
For every event outcome, an ERC-20 compatible outcome token is created. That means that every event contract will be associated with at least two outcome tokens. For a prediction market on a categorical event, such as "Where will Amazon locate its next headquarters?", the outcome tokens would be A) Phoenix, B) Chicago, C) Austin, or D) other. For a prediction market on a scalar event where the outcome is a scalar value, such as "What will Apple's stock price be at the end of Q4 2018?", the outcome tokens would be a short outcome token and a long outcome token.
What is an oracle?
To resolve an event, an event contract needs to get the information about what actually happened in the real world — who won the presidential election? What is Apple’s stock price at the end of the year? Oracles capture this real-world information and set the outcome for an event in the event contract. Gnosis is agnostic towards oracles and in principle allows use of any oracle. We will implement new oracles into the oracle interface as they are created by other teams.
What is a centralized oracle?
For some applications it will be fine to rely on a single data provider. In some cases, there simply is a single source of truth —e.g. a sensor measurement by a specific sensor, or data on who won the Nobel prize for medicine from a prespecified newsfeed. If those data are available in a structured format, only a signature of the issuer is necessary to make them smart contract compatible. This is what we call a centralized oracle.
What is a decentralized oracle?
Many proposals have been made for how to implement decentralized oracles. The common scheme is that the truth is a schelling point. Different decentralized oracle mechanisms usually set up various coordination games where participants are voting in an economically incentivized way. If they vote along with the majority, they gain some value, and if they vote against the majority, they lose value.
What is the Market Maker and what does it do?
To buy and sell event outcome tokens, the market contract calls a Market Maker, a bot which is pricing the outcomes given the current state of the market. An example: As part of this framework, Gnosis implemented an automated market maker based on the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR) developed by Robin Hanson. An LMSR market maker simply reacts to the supply and demand of outcomes — the prices of outcomes vary as their relative demands do. The more funding a market gets, the larger the trading volume would have to be in order to move the price.

TechnicalTechnical

Key metricsKey metrics
Token InformationToken Information
Gnosis is a token on the ETH platform using the ERC-20 standard. The address of the token contract is 0x6810e776880c02933d47db1b9fc05908e5386b96.

Source Code Repositories

gnosis/pm-trading-db 15 Stars 9 Contributers 1 Open Issues

Gnosis Core Database Layer

EconomicsEconomics

Tradeable CoinsTradeable Coins
1,104,590 (11% of total) ({tradeable_of_total} of total)

Rich List Addresses holding the largest balances

AddressAddress AmountAmount NameName
0x3257bde8cf067ae6f1ddc0e4b140fe02e3c5e44f 8,495,410 Gnosis: Vault (Contract)
0x1d805bc00b8fa3c96ae6c8fa97b2fd24b19a9801 400,000
0xbf74c12d6e6a8c2bd7f36a917250e2bf8bffefc1 267,998.97018272
0xb49091108e6804d1675d32eaa02989096384208a 238,381.37524069
0x9ee585a6c270fd8b046a5b2019fdac86544bca61 72,631.93730974
0xfc36387afdba73d4532af724ee04d94992e8a2e8 71,618.03534056
0x851b7f3ab81bd8df354f0d7640efcd7288553419 63,962.4232445 Gnosis: MultiSig 2 (Contract)
0xfbb1b73c4f0bda4f67dca266ce6ef42f520fbb98 52,818.78299984 Bittrex 1
0xa4a6a282a7fc7f939e01d62d884355d79f5046c1 50,251
0xa910f92acdaf488fa6ef02174fb86208ad7722ba 22,239.4421563 Poloniex 4
0xc0754d0a5cb5b25d452be07165180ef331a3241a 20,634.05750571
0x6750adbb477d0310f395da2ad93abe4b9bfd1c87 14,479.46684601
0xf5e0639f856698d93c9d9886011018c304d52764 9,999.99
0x0639ea12aafbc7a66304696874cf8001423877fc 9,568.96
0x31cba7ad3483f9bff236df556e1c3695736a9615 9,371.61512169
0xb9812e2fa995ec53b5b6df34d21f9304762c5497 9,249.1294107
0x1cb5b2bb4030220ad5417229a7a1e3c373cdd2f6 6,575.70250917
0xd1614f0854c1b0e795552641d23b0433773602ba 6,007.1069588
0xce52a8dd7c8ad08e94b44620622e3630f7c1fc90 4,726 Gnosis: MultiSig 3 (Contract)
0x0c76b11a7ec51ee5cc205ca840ab808049d156ec 4,665.215

Exchange Markets

ExchangeExchange MarketMarket PricePrice DiffDiff Volume 24hVolume 24h SpreadSpread Spread $1kSpread $1k
Kraken GNO/BTC $17.63 0.21% $15,656 0.56% 2.2%
Kraken GNO/EUR $17.58 -0.06% $14,745 0.19% 2.2%
Kraken GNO/USD $17.57 -0.17% $10,038 0.17% 2.2%
Kraken GNO/ETH $17.58 -0.11% $5,949.74 0.6% 2%
Bittrex GNO/BTC $17.60 0.02% $3,596.91 0.5% 1.7%
Bittrex GNO/ETH $17.60 0.01% $748.05 1% 5.4%
Bitfinex GNO/BUSD $17.60 0% $46.29 16% 100%
Bitfinex GNO/ETH $17.41 -1.1% $5.3046 9.1%
Lykke GNO/BTC $14.03 -20% $0.0000 99%
Lykke GNO/ETH $27.60 57% $0.0000 92%

Latest Gnosis NewsLatest Gnosis News

Gnosis on Twitter

Check out what's going on at Gnosis this month! In this issue we'll talk @dappcon_berlin, a Burner Wallet integration for @gnosisSafe, and how we stepped back from the dxDAO! https://t.co/BdewSvSuVI… https://t.co/pNsSwGTdfX

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Eric Conner on Twitter

Gnosis grant to @austingriffith to build Burner Wallet + Safe integration. ??…

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Gnosis on Twitter

The Gnosis Safe and Burner Wallet are teaming up! ?? Check out how we're improving the crypto wallet onboarding experience with a seamless integration with the Burner Wallet. @austingriffith @gnosisSafe https://t.co/iUmjqi8jm1… https://t.co/EZRyAHKtHD

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Gnosis Safe on Twitter

The Gnosis Safe and Burner Wallet are working on something very cool. ?? @austingriffith will build a simple interface within the Burner Wallet for seamless deployment and interaction with the Gnosis Safe. Check out our post for deets! @gnosisPM https://t.co/pfdTbYOmc2

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Gnosis on Twitter

Eric Conner @econoar talked about how the Gnosis Safe @gnosisSafe is fundamentally a different type of wallet from what we're used to—one that will be critical for Ethereum and adoption.… https://t.co/2XbMQArpUi

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DappCon Berlin on Twitter

If you haven't gotten your DappCon ticket yet, find a discount code in our Telegram Chat: ?????? https://t.co/r61Pz0CBqO

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Mihailo Bjelic on Twitter

They could create LibraDAO on Ethereum. ?? @gnosisPM did that with dxDAO: https://t.co/5IiNvDTDzP, and then stepped back from it: https://t.co/sQ4sXw5CV7. If Libra is not (fully) developed and operational when FB steps down, can they be held accountable if that happens later? ??… https://t.co/m9QTgsn6v6

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DappCon Berlin on Twitter

Why attend DappCon? We asked @austingriffith in the first episode of our new DappCon podcast! ???Here’s a teaser ???? Stay tuned for more to come on https://t.co/UfwOlEy1oJ… https://t.co/WxxcWqznrA

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Gnosis on Twitter

Gnosis has stepped back from the dxDAO, and today its governance powers go live at 12noon GMT. https://t.co/UhUwuyITOh #dxDAO

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Joseph Lubin on Twitter

Thrilled to be attending @dappcon_berlin once again next month. The technical content last year was in a league of its own. @gnosisPM fills the room with devs who are on the front lines tackling real infrastructure issues on #Ethereum. https://t.co/HTo3KjSFVV… https://t.co/ZKnHYaCSQB

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This information is provided AS IS and is not adviceThis information is provided AS IS and is not advice. May contain errors or omissions. Please always do your own research before trading.May contain errors or omissions. Please always do your own research before trading.
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